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EUROPEAN REVIEW

ISSUE 7 - Page 5

Poland: A suitable case for accession ?

Over the next five years six nations, mainly from eastern Europe, should be admitted as new members of the European Union. The European Review examines one of them and asks if it is ready.

POLAND, WITH 38 million people is the most populous of the eastern European nations which are trying to enter the EU. It is also reckoned to be one of the most advanced along the road to satisfying the economic and political conditions. According to the Council of Ministers meeting in Copenhagen in 1993: 'membership requires:- that the candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for...minorities;...a functioning market economy, as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union' and the ability to adhere 'to the aims of political, economic and monetary union'.

However in the early 1990s Poland, together with most of the countries in the region, experienced a sharp downturn in its economy. Production declined, inflation took off, social security systems lost their financing and living standards deteriorated. The countries took a deep dive. It was not until around 1993 or 1994 that the bottom had been reached and economic growth started again. Poland's economic growth was particularly strong, 5% in 1994. Expansion has been maintained until the present with a rise in industrial production of over 11% in 1997 and a forecasted growth in GDP of 3.7% for 1999. However the agricultural sector is still particularly large, 4.3 million worked full-time in agriculture in 1995 corresponding to 27% of total employment although from 1989 to 1995 employment in agriculture fell by 4.5%.

EU Trade

Since the changes in central and eastern Europe, trade between these new market economies and the Member States of the European Union has grown rapidly. By the end of 1994, 45% of the foreign trade of the ten central and eastern European countries was with the European Union. In 1988, it was only 20%. In January 1999 Poland was the fourth largest trading partner of the EU after the U.S.A., Switzerland and Japan (see table on page 4). This does not mean however that the whole of the Polish population is benefitting from the upswing.

Purchasing power continues to be low, inequality is growing, unemployment is high and social security is lacking. Many important social provisions have now lost their value or are simply not provided any more. Unemployment hits women workers hard. In families, women often bear the heaviest burden of poverty, trying to make ends meet. Trade unions have not been able to make important inroads into the private sector. They have retained most of their members in the co-operatives and the employees of some of the privatised state enterprises. Only a few unions have managed to organise in the real private enterprises.

Alexander Kwasniewski

Membership has declined, with major implications for labour relations in an environment where unions must rely on their own strength to force employers to negotiate. Nevertheless, organising rates are still equal with or even higher than most countries of Western Europe. On the political front Poland is a democratic republic with an executive President, a legislative parliament consisting of two houses, as well as a separate Judicial Power. The President is elected in general elections. The President nominates the Prime Minister and, upon his recommendations, the ministers who constitute the Government. The Government and its programme then need to receive votes of confidence by an absolute majority of the parliament. The parliament, also elected in general elections, is responsible for creating and control of laws. Judicial power is vested in independent courts, which answer to the Supreme Court. The Constitutional Tribunal makes sure that laws and executive acts are constitutional. After the 1997 parliamentary general election the Solidarity Election Action (AWS) party was the largest and their leader Mr. Jerzy Buzek became Prime Minister. The President, Mr. Alexander Kwasniewski is a member of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) which descended from the former communists.

Agenda 2000

According to the 'Agenda 2000 - Commission Opinion on Poland's Application for Membership of the European Union' Poland is nearing the point where it can apply the 'acquis', that is the laws necessary to uphold EU principles such as the single market. 'Poland presents the characteristics of a democracy, with stable institutions guaranteeing the rule of law,human rights and respect for and protection of minorities; Poland can be regarded as a functioning market economy, and should be able to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the [EU] in the medium term; if Poland continues its efforts on transposition of the acquis relating particularly to the single market [it] should become able to participate fully in the single market in the medium term'. In conclusion it seems that despite its recent tragic history the future for Poland is improving.

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Since the changes in central and eastern Europe, trade between these new market economies and the Member States of the European Union has grown rapidly. By the end of 1994, 45% of the foreign trade of the ten central and eastern European countries was with the European Union. In 1988, it was only 20%. In January 1999 Poland was the fourth largest trading partner of the EU after the U.S.A., Switzerland and Japan (see table on page 4). This does not mean however that the whole of the Polish population is benefitting from the upswing.		Purchasing power continues to be low, inequality is growing, unemployment is high and social security is lacking. Many important social provisions have now lost their value or are simply not provided any more. Unemployment hits women workers hard. In families, women often bear the heaviest burden of poverty, trying to make ends meet. Trade unions have not been able to make important inroads into the private sector. They have retained most of their members in the co-operatives and the employees of some of the privatised state enterprises. Only a few unions have managed to organise in the real private enterprises.
	Alexander Kwasniewski