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The EU Commission has now reported that ten countries are likely to be admitted before the 2004 European Parliament elections. Enlargement is firmly on the agenda but there are fears among the existing members of what the process might mean for them. We examine the progress of the new and the shock to the old.
EVERY YEAR THE EU COMMISSION publishes a report into the readiness of countries who want to join. Last year it sprang a surprise by estimating the likely total who would make it before 2004 at 10 rather than 6 as previously. Only Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria were excluded, on the basis of lack of human rights in Turkey's case, and insufficient progress towards a free market. The other candidates were delighted, 'Lots of praise, less and milder criticism than last year - that's basically how we can characterise the... report on Hungary's progress for the last year,' wrote the Budapest newspaper Nepszava.
However there are still a number of blocks on the road to enlargement, not the least of which is the attitude of existing Member States. In Germany and Austria the feeling has been growing that the free movement of labour, guaranteed under EU treaties, will result in hordes of Czechs, Poles and Hungarians flooding their neighbours' labour markets. With wage rates in the eastern European countries estimated, allowing for local prices, at about a quarter of the EU average the fear is that large numbers of newcomers will undercut German and Austrian workers. These Member States have already demanded a transition period of seven years before unrestricted migration from the East will be allowed.
Fears groundless
Recent analyses, though, have shown that these fears may be exaggerated and that a temporary ban on migration is not the way to deal with the problem. A study by the University of Bonn showed that rates of immigration from the new members would reach 220,000 for Germany and 40,000 for Austria in the first year after the ban and would halve after 10 years. Moreover the migrants would help the receiving economies because they were likely to be well educated but concentrated in existing low wage jobs in the more prosperous regions.
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Border posts, like this one between Hungary and Romania, will eventually disappear under EU enlargement plans |
But what about the people of the prospective new members, is there unanimous agreement with their governments' europhile enthusiasm ? The EU commission has recently conducted the first Eurobarometer survey in the candidate countries. A kind of in-depth opinion poll (see previous issues for existing members), the barometer revealed that on average, 59% in the applicant countries feel that EU membership would be a 'good thing', higher than in the present EU where the average is 49%. Two thirds (65%) of the respondents of voting age in the would-be members declare that they would vote "Yes" if a referendum were to be held on this issue (see page 9 for more details).
Candidate problemsBulgaria
- no market economy |
A kind of in-depth opinion poll (see previous issues for existing members), the barometer revealed that on average, 59% in the applicant countries feel that EU membership would be a 'good thing', higher than in the present EU where the average is 49%. Two thirds (65%) of the respondents of voting age in the would-be members declare that they would vote "Yes" if a referendum were to be held on this issue (see page 9 for more details). So if the people and governments of the applicants are generally in favour and the fears of the present members can be overcome, is there anything to stop the EU's favoured 10 joining some time in the next 2 years ? Two of these states have extra problems. Poland, the most populous of them with 39 million inhabitants, has a large number of small farms which would break the Common Agricultural Policy so the EU recently offered them a quarter of the subsidies that farmers currently receive. Some Polish politicians argue that cheaper Western food will flood their market and they are also against land sales to foreigners. Poland's unemployment rate jumped to a new post-communist high of 18% in January. Cyprus is still divided into Turkish and Greek Cypriot zones but Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen believes that it is the EU's 'strategic goal' to take in a united Cyprus. If this proves impossible Greece is likely to block any enlargement process that postpones entry for the Greek zone. |
If the Commission can solve these two headaches we may see many extra translators struggling with another ten languages after the 2004 European elections.
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